1B. The Basic Issue- Abbreviated Dates

1C. Only used last two digits of the year -

assumed 1900s

2C. Reason: cost of memory (Now costs about 1/100,000)

2B. Compliance Process

1C. Inventory

2C. Assessment

3C. Correction or Replacement

1D. Older Programs

Approx 500 Computer languages

Programmers have died or retired (forgotten)

Source code missing, careless, or inaccurate

2D. Est. 180 billion lines of code to review

Peter Jennings- Feb. '98 ABC TV - this is the equivalent of having to find and replace every bolt in every bridge in the entire world in twenty-two months.

3D. Date code used approx. once every 50 lines

4D. Missing or inadequate source code

5D. Not enough qualified programmers

6D. Introduction of new bugs

7D. Possibility of sabotage

4C. Testing

1D. 30-70% of the project

2D. Need duplicate machines

3D. Gartner group estimates 30% of missions-critical applications will not be fixed in time, and 20-30% of today's businesses are likely to fail.

4D. "Triage" being used - most attention where needed

5C. Cost

Est. cost $ 1/ line +

6C. Time

1D. Ave 30 months for mid-sized company to complete (Gartner Group)

2D. Big companies should have started by 1996

GM - 2 billion lines of code, 100,000 suppliers "just in time." What happens if they can be ready themselves, but 20% of their suppliers cant? What about the suppliers' suppliers?

3D. Social Security started 1991 - Not done yet - 30 million lines of code.

4D. Programmers are usually late on deadlines

3B. Personal Computers - est. 250 million of them

1C. BIOS - Many older versions not compliant

2C. DOS not compliant

3C. Windows 3.x - 80% chance of rebooting to year 1980 or 1984

4C. First release of Windows 95 did not include Feb. 29, 2000 (unusual leap year).

4B. Imbedded Chips

1C. 25 to 50 billion exist

2C. 7 billion shipped last year

3C. Only 1% (+/-) Have use date - still critical

4C. Can't change internal programs (some exceptions)

5C. Difficult to find, analyze, replace

6C. Many are obsolete, no replacements

5B. Connectivity

AOL shut down in 1996 - "a one-digit mistake"

Galaxy 4 Satellite, 1998 -Pagers, ATMs everywhere for more than a day

1B. Perspectives:

1C. Pessimistic

1D. End of the World as we know it

2D. Major disruption

2C. Optimistic

1D. No problem at all

2D. Minor disruption

3C. Realistic

1D. Biggest challenge of our generation

2D. Significant disruption

2B. Failures:

1C. Infrastructure

1D. Electrical grid

Believe they will survive, but depend on telecommunications, natural.. gas and rail for coal

2D. Telecommunications

3D. Gas and Water Supply

4D. Transportation

Trains, Ships, Trucks

Scheduling

Fuel supply

2C. Business

Triaxis Report in Software Magazine, July, 1998

The nation's 250 largest corporations:

58% are in the first phase- Assessment (1% of work)

3C. Government

1D. United States

1E. Government Report Card, Sept. 1998

Grade Card September, 1998 - Overall: grade is a D

http://www.fredon.gov/y2k/grades/grades.asp

Social Security - Started '89 - In '97 were 75% finished. Then found 25 million more lines of code they had forgotten.

http://www.itpolicy.gsa.gov/mks/yr2000/y203swp1.htm.

There are also many data processing professionals who have indicated that they do not view this problem as "theirs" because they will be retiring before 2000. Ownership of the problem is critical to its solution. IRS document written by Arthur Voss, head of the IRS information systems- went to congress to say that their $11 billion attempt to transfer their system to new super computer had failed (after 10 years), and needed another $4 billion to get ready for Y2K, and couldn't keep programmers from quitting, couldn't keep up with tax changes, and couldn't meet year 2000 compliance. In Feb., '98 he resigned. Info no longer on internet.

Was at:

http://www.ustreas.gov/treasury/bureaus/irs/prime/primerfc.htm

2E. Late starts - Rep. Horn says that 1/2 of government won't make it

http://online.guardian.co.uk/computing/884885606-y2k.html (no longer on line)

3E. Legal issues

Sharing (Anti-trust)

Liability/Non-disclosure

2D.. Other Countries

1E. General

80% of mainframe computer code is outside US

2E. Europe

Precedence of the Euro

3E. Russia

More urgent problems

4E. Asia

Just trying to survive

Chinese legislation- Comply by Mar. 1999

5E. South America

Lagging behind Asia

6E. Others

3B. Litigation - est. $30 billion to $1.2 Trillion

Florida Bill (9/22/98) - Compensatory + 3 Times Damage. No liability if customers notified by 9/1/99 that, despite best efforts, they will not be compliant.

4B. Advanced Problems - Sooner than Jan 1, 2000

1C. Critical early dates

Jan 1, 1999 -Start of use of the Euro in Europe

April 1, 1999 -Some Countries/ States' fiscal years

April 9, 1999 - 99th day of '99

9999 Used as stop code in many programs.

May cause sudden unexpected halt.

July 1 - Many companies' fiscal years

Aug. 22, 1999 - GPS (Global Positioning Satellite) reset to 0. Affects most navigational systems

Sept. 9, 1999 - 9999 again?

Oct. 1, 1999 - Beginning of Federal Fiscal year

Feb. 29, 2000 - Unusual leap year

2C. Hoarding/ Shortages

3C. Runs on the Bank

4C. Business Bankruptcies - Stock Market Collapse?

5C. Abandonment of programmers

Incompetence

Intense Pressure

6C. Sabotage

7C. Possible riots, looting

8C. Sporadic computer glitches

1B. Information

1C. Seminars

2C. Internet

3C. Books and pamphlets

Y2K Info: Three-ring binder(s)- your notes

First Aid

Health and safety

Nutrition

2B. Networking

1C. Business

2C. Neighborhood

Neighborhood plans

3C. Church

Prayer networks

Preparedness team

Pantry and clothes closet

Ministry teams

- Elderly and disabled

- Poor and needy

4C. Family

3B. Compliance

1C. Test own equipment

Personal Computer tests

Software tests

2C.Repair/replace as necessary

4B. Records - current hard copy

Birth certificates

Passports

Medical records

Copy of driver's license

Social Security Cards

Social Security Earnings

Investment Records

Savings

Insurance policies

Household inventory

Ownership certificates - pink slips, etc

Loan documents

Other financial records

Prescriptions

Computer data back-up

Hard copy of essential data from computer

Wills

5B. Provision

1C. How Much?

Weeks?

Months?

2C. What?

1D. Water and Purification

One gallon per person per day

Store in sealed, unbreakable containers

Label storage date - replace in 6 months

Water purification chemicals & filters

2D. Food

Non-perishable packaged or canned food

Freeze-dried back-pack food - -$1600 per person/year

Wheat, Corn, Soybeans, Rice, Beans - $200-$300 per person/year

Nitrogen packaging to avoid vermin

Vitamins

3D. Communications

Battery-powered radios

AM/FM

Short Wave

CB

Pager -alphanumeric

4D. First Aid and Medications

First aid kit - see lists

Prescription medication

Natural health aids

Extra pair of glasses

Medical records, style and serial # of special devices such as pacemakers

5D. Sanitation Supplies

Trash Bags

Paper Towels

Toilet Paper

Anti-bacterial cream

Lime

6D. Batteries (plenty/ various sizes)

7D. Fuel

Gasoline in legal, safe containers

Propane or White Gas

Sterno canned heat

Wood

Briquettes

8D. Fire Extinguishers

9D. Cash - lots - small bills

10D. Transportation

11D. Camping Equipment

Camping stove and fuel

Matches/ lighters

Camping lights

Flashlights and batteries

12D. Winter Clothing

Used clothes - thrift stores

13D. Tools and equipment

Basic tool kit

Can opener (manual)

Pocket knife

Buckets

Gardening Tools

Ax

14D. Shared Equipment

Generator

Tractor

Mill

Well

Wood-burning stove

15D. Seed

3C. Where?

1D. Dry cool places

2D. Inconspicuous places

3D. Multiple places

6B. Faith

1C. Personal trust - most important: personal relationship with The Lord.

2C. Ministry opportunity - chance to show your trust in The Lord and attract others to the faith.

3C. Sharing with others - food, water, etc. Also faith in the Lord.

7B. Things to Avoid

1C. Extreme anti-government activists

2C. Lone survivalist mentality

3C. Armed camp mentality

4C. Excessive accumulation - Just make you a target for looters

See features of The Prophecy Puzzle, Bible study software for prophecy students.